GHG emissions and the transition to climate neutrality

Slovenia must report annually to the European Commission and the UNFCCC Secretariat on national records of anthropogenic emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases as agreed IPCC methodology.

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In the total share of GHG emissions, CO has the largest contribution in Slovenia2 (as much as 2018% in 82,8). CO2 it is created mainly during the combustion of fuel and also during industrial processes, especially those where carbonates are used as raw materials. This is followed by methane (11,1%), which mostly originates from waste and agriculture, and nitrous oxide (4,3%), which is also produced mainly in agriculture, and nitrous oxide emissions from road traffic are also noticeable. Emissions of F-gases, which include hydrofluorinated hydrocarbons (HFCs), perfluorinated hydrocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), are very small, but due to the high greenhouse effect, their contribution to the warming of the atmosphere is not negligible (1,9%)

(BURNT)

Emissions and commitments until 2020

Po Decision 406/2009/EC Slovenia's goal by 2020 was that GHG emissions in sectors outside the EU-ETS would not increase by more than 4% compared to 2005. The goal for sources included in the European greenhouse gas emission rights trading system (EU-ETS) is determined at EU level.

In 2019, emissions from non-ETS sectors were 11,9% lower than the allocated amounts for that year.*

In 2018, transport represented the largest source of total GHG emissions at 33%, followed by electricity and heat production with 30%, industry with 17%, agriculture with 10%, general use with 7,5% and waste with 2,5%. In the period from 2005, emissions decreased in all sectors, except for transport (an increase of 32%).*

The data of emission monitoring and the implementation of measures to reduce GHG indicate that Slovenia is achieving the goal set by 2020. Irrespective of the achievement of this goal, in order to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and to achieve the strict GHG reduction goals set by 2030 at the European level, it will be necessary to further strengthen efforts in all sectors and enable more radical systemic changes both at the national and local levels.

Commitments and projections of future emissions

Commitments after 2020

The EU aims to become a climate-neutral economy with zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This goal is at the center of the European Green Deal and in line with the EU's commitment to global climate action under of the Paris Agreement.*

According to Regulation 2018/842, Slovenia's legally binding international goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 2030% by 15 compared to 2005. This goal refers to emissions from sources that are not included in the emissions trading scheme. V the national energy climate plan, which was adopted in February 2020, Slovenia set itself the goal of reducing these emissions by 20%. Subsequently, in December 2020, the European Council adopted a new EU-level target of at least a 55% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. These toughened targets will be included in the legislative package "Ready for 55" ("Fit for 55"), which is currently still under preparation.

Projections of emissions for Slovenia 

Within of the LIFE project Climate path 2050, projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Slovenia until 2050 were prepared based on various scenarios.

Projections were made based on six different scenarios. The range of emission reduction shares until 2050, without taking into account the sinks of the LULCUF sector, is between 23% and 89%, depending on the ambition and the envisaged measures of the scenario. Projections indicate that, by taking into account the emission sinks, the country can reach the goal of net zero emissions or climate neutrality by 2050 under both ambitious scenarios (DUA scenario).

Current course of GHG emissions

Figure: The current course of GHG emissions without the LULUCF sector until 2017 and the course of emissions according to projections for six scenarios from 2020 to 2050 (source: ARSO, IJS-CEU, KIS)

Sectoral structure of emissions

Figure: Sectoral structure of GHG emissions in selected past years and according to the projection for the OU, DUA JE and DUA SNP scenarios for the years 2020, 2030,2040, 2050 and XNUMX (source: ARSO, IJS-CEU, KIS)

Source: LIFE Climate Path 2050 project

More about scenarios at this link: https://www.podnebnapot2050.si/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/LIFE-ClimatePath2050_Deliverable-C3_2_AnalizaScenarijevPovzetek_V_2.pdf